The Director of ‘Contagion’ Presents: Outbreak Oscars
Check your temps and mark your ballots, OSCAR-93 is here.
This is going to be the weirdest Academy Awards ever, whether the telecast succeeds or flops. Two months late (the latest delay in the Academy’s 93-year history), plagued with lingering droplets of a Pandemic (70% of the country still isn’t fully vaccinated), and set in over 20 locations. But, that isn’t all. The new team of Oscars Producers have a bold plan to re-conceptualize the show.
What if the biggest night in film…were a movie?
Probably a question that has never crossed your mind, but it’s gonna be answered on Sunday, April 25th. Brought to us by the man who made the first 2 months of quarantine entertaining and even more nerve-wrecking, Steven Soderbergh.
Soderbergh, the Oscar-winning director of Traffic and Erin Brockovich garnered some resurgence last year when his nearly forgotten pandemic thriller Contagion took off on Netflix, like The Beatles on Sullivan, when life imitated art. Maybe its no coincidence that the director of a pandemic movie would be tasked with bringing the Academy Awards during a pandemic, but it has brought a self-proclaimed “cryptic” sense of creativity to a night of glitz and glamor.
The show will look like a movie. What does that mean? I can tell you that you know as much as I do. Here’s what I do know, though.
There is a “cast” of 15 presenters rotating throughout the evening ranging from last year’s winners Joaquin Phoenix and Bong Joon-ho to past recipients Marlee Matlin and Rita Moreno. The ceremony will also be spread out beyond the Dolby Theatre, which has housed the show for over a decade. Los Angeles Union Station will co-host the awards, as well as 20 other venues set up around the globe for international nominees who can’t fly over. They will be accessed via satellite. You know what that means…NO ZOOM! Thank God. No Daniel Kaluuya forgetting to un-mute his mic. No more static applause.
No sir, the only bad connection at this show will be Brad Pitt and any female actor in the same room. Soderbergh has ensured that the attendance will be as normal as humanly possible. That means no hoodies (looking at you, Jason Sudekis), no virtual calls, but also no afterparty. The Governor’s Ball has been cancelled, as was the Governor’s Honorary Oscars (which would have been held last November), and the Nominee’s Luncheon (which would have been in January).
The show has stirred some controversy, though. Recently it was announced in an interview with Soderbergh that face masks are not required. Aside from the blatant hypocrisy of these celebrities who have been barking at people to wear masks from the comfort of their mansions, where they’ve been hosting parties since last March and haven’t been wearing theirs, the tiny piece of cloth apparently has a “role” in this “Oscar-Movie”, according to Soderbergh.
Yes, masks are now a Mcguffin in the Oscar-verse. We’ll see how the elites play with public health measures. Are you excited yet?
Also, there will be no musical performances during the ceremony for the first time. They have been relegated to a pre-show special. There will, however, still be an “In Memoriam” tribute, though it hasn’t been disclosed if there will be a performance to back it up (Billie Eillish sang a cover of the Beatles’ “Yesterday” at last year’s show).
This year’s Memoriam will be extra-gutwrenching. In a year filled with loss, we will see multiple Oscar-recipients remembered. Actors Christopher Plummer (The Sound of Music, Knives Out), Cicely Tyson (Sounder, Fried Green Tomatoes), and Max von Sydow (The Seventh Seal, The Exorcist) will be featured, as well as legendary composer Ennio Morricone (The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly), and directors Joel Schumacher (The Lost Boys) and Carl Reiner (The Jerk). Last year the oldest living Oscar-winner lost her title when Olivia de Havilland (who twice won Best Actress in 1947 and 1950) passed away in July at age 104. The saddest part of all, though, will be remembering the posthumously-nominated Chadwick Boseman, who died from cancer in August.
All in all, it will be a strange experiment. I hope to God it doesn’t continue after this, and I also pray that there won’t be an appearance by a politician (First Lady Michelle Obama presented Best Picture in 2013 and then-Vice President Joe Biden introduced Lady Gaga in 2016) to remind us how bad things are…in a country where they make the rules. Please, please, please don’t let Gavin Newsom or Andrew Cuomo near the stage. I’ll make a possible exception for Vice President Kamala Harris, but that’s all.
Contagion Oscars: coming soon to a theater, a train station, and 20 block parties near you…and thousands of miles away from you.
Who’s Going to Win?
The race is harder to predict than ever, because it seems like there are locks. If I’ve learned anything from predicting Oscars, though, it is that there are no locks. I’d love to go through each and every category and give a detailed description of each nominee, but I’ll just do the top 8 and keep my words brief.
Best Picture
Nominees:
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
This is, in my opinion, a very good list. The only film I don’t like is Sound of Metal (too slow and disengaging). If it were 1991 instead of 2021, the winner would be The Trial of the Chicago 7. It’s a large-scale Aaron Sorkin courtroom drama that’s just neo-liberal-ly apologetic enough to convince you that it has a message. It’s a factory-made movie with good performances and a solid script, but little excitement.
Mank is a movie made for film students and no one else (I already reviewed this one). The Father is a beautifully-woven drama about the eating away of one man’s brain (it’s also based on a play that I adore). If I were voting, I’d give the award to Judas and the Black Messiah, a thrilling epic about Black Panthers leader Fred Hampton and the undercover spy who betrayed him and led to him to death. It’s emotionally gripping, constantly interesting and entertaining, and meets the moment.
This brings me to the top 3 potential winners: Nomadland, a Steinbeck-ian portrait of a working-class woman living a life of free roaming after the death of her husband; Promising Young Woman, an exciting revenge thriller about a woman avenging a rape; and Minari, a charming family drama about a rural Korean-American family finding their footing in a new environment.
Nomadland seems to be the frontrunner, but I have learned you must never trust the frontrunner. Remember 2017? What was the frontrunner? La La Land. It lost (well, it won for a minute and then lost). 2018? Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. It lost. 2019? Roma. It lost. Last year? 1917. It lost.
My advice for those predicting: stick with the second in line. What would that be? Well, with apologies to Political Professor Allan Lichtman and his “White House Keys”, to win Best Picture a film needs at least 2 keys: a Screenplay WIN, and an Editing NOMINATION. Minari lacks the editing nomination, so by this logic its out. Promising Young Woman on the other hand has both nominations and is predicted to win Best Original Screenplay (but I’ll get to that).
My pick: Promising Young Woman.
Best Director
Nominees:
Thomas Vinterberg — Another Round
David Fincher — Mank
Lee Isaac Chung — Minari
Emerald Fennell — Promising Young Woman
Chloe Zhao — Nomadland
No need to be anxious about the frontrunner here. Chloe Zhao has this in the bag. Nomadland is a director’s movie and her vision and empathy is the strength that guides the film and leaves us enamored.
When she wins, she will be the second woman ever to win this award. How richly deserved it is.
My Pick: Chloe Zhao — Nomadland
Best Actress
Nominees:
Viola Davis — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day — The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby — Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand — Nomadland
Carey Mulligan — Promising Young Woman
As much as I love Viola Davis and really want her to win this, she can’t. Last year’s winner in this category was Renee Zellweger for Judy, where she played Judy Garland. I don’t see the Academy picking another portrayal of an iconic singer two years in a row, so that eliminates Davis and Andra Day.
This category is competitive, though, because all of these women have won some award in the past few months. Day won the Golden Globe, Davis won SAG, Carey Mulligan won the Critic’s Choice Award, Vanessa Kirby won Best Actress at the Venice Film Festival, and Frances McDormand won the BAFTA last week.
I’m going with Mulligan. Her outside-in work in Promising Young Woman is harrowing. The places she had to go to give that performance…I can’t imagine.
My pick: Carey Mulligan — Promising Young Woman
Best Actor
Nominees:
Riz Ahmed — Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins — The Father
Gary Oldman — Mank
Steven Yeun — Minari
This is Chadwick Boseman’s to lose. The late actor has left behind an indelible legacy, with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom being the closing chapter on a career cut far too short. He’s giving his most poignant work in this film. So, out of respect for the man and sheer awe of the work he did, Boseman will win.
Anthony Hopkins is a close second. What he does in The Father is beyond magnificent, it is utterly horrifying. You are watching a man die before your very eyes. He embodies the spirit, anger, denial, and lack of control within a man shriveling.
My pick: Chadwick Boseman — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Maria Bakalova — Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close — Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman — The Father
Amanda Seyfried — Mank
Youn Yuh-jung — Minari
If tricking Rudy Giuliani into rubbing his genitals on camera isn’t enough to win an Oscar, I don’t know what is. Nevertheless, I anticipate the Academy will overlook Maria Bakalova’s stunning, mostly improvised performance in the shocking opus that is the second Borat.
I’ve already written about how much I hate Hillbilly Elegy, and the Academy seems to hate Glenn Close so she’s out. Amanda Seyfried, as charming as she is, doesn’t give a memorable performance in Mank. She is subtle, naive, and curious as screen actress Marion Davies. The race is between Olivia Colman in The Father, as the daughter of a man riddled with dementia, and Youn Yuh-jung, the feisty, foul-mouthed and adventurous grandmother in Minari.
I predict Youn Yuh-jung will win. She plays a lovable character in a lovable film. Her character has a tremendous arc and is highly consequential in the film’s climax. She immerses herself in the self-reliant, mentor-like role with such ease. Plus, if she wins, she will be only the 2nd Asian woman to win this an Oscar for Acting.
My pick: Youn Yuh-jung — Minari
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen — The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya — Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr. — One Night in Miami
Paul Raci — Sound of Metal
LaKeith Stanfield — Judas and the Black Messiah
Judas and the Black Messiah is my absolute favorite movie of the year and deserves some more recognition. Luckily, there is Daniel Kaluuya in this category. He has swept the awards circuit, winning basically every trophy possible for this film. It is truly warranted. However, I must admit it is weird that LaKeith Stanfield, the Judas to Kaluuya’s Messiah, is also nominated here. Both are supporting actors? How are they not the lead? They’re both the title roles!!!
My pick: Daniel Kaluuya — Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Academy faces a tough choice: will they finally honor a singular female writer and give the award to Ms. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, repeat last year’s decision to honor a Korean writer for telling an original story from a marginalized perspective with Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari, or give the award to industry-favorite Aaron Sorkin again for The Trial of the Chicago 7?
My hope is that the voters will choose the first option. Promising Young Woman has all of the elements that make a legendary film: humor, drama, mystery, suspense, and an ending that leaves people exiting the theater (well, theater or living room — I actually saw this film in a theater, the only movie I saw in public last year) in discussion or debate.
That being said, it will be incredibly hypocritical. This is, after all, the industry that hailed sexual abusers for decades (and still does), and a film about revenge on a rapist could be a bit too uncomfortable for the same people who once voted for Harvey Weinstein movies on a regular basis. Actually, the sheer fact that I have this movie picked to win Best Picture as well is kind of daring. It’s a long-shot pick, but then Parasite was also a long-shot pick last year…and it won.
My pick: Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Writing awards almost always go to one of the films that’s also nominated for Best Picture, thus eliminating One Night in Miami and The White Tiger. I don’t see how Borat is nominated, considering most of the film was improvised. There must be more to it than I care to research and find out. Also, as wild and provocative as that movie is, it doesn’t match a majority of Academy voters’ taste. It’s simply too ludicrous.
The Father is another one of my favorites of last year, and there does seem to be some industry appreciation for it. It’s the true “little movie that could” of this year: a stellar piece of work on a small scale that seemed to slip beneath the cracks. It’s script is incredibly powerful, weaving moments of time in an idiosyncratic approach that boggles the mind of the viewer in an effective way. Nomadland also has a very good script, but that film’s power comes from its vision, as I mentioned earlier. Whereas The Father’s foundation is its text in its entirety, Nomadland’s story feeds the technical and creative aspects that send the film straight into our soul, not necessarily the screenplay. It’s visuals are, in some respects, the story. We, the audience, drift along with the protagonist and see the physical world in their eyes.
The Father is driven by character, and Nomadland is driven by the space around the character.
My pick: The Father
